Yesterday, today and beyond
The twentieth century has seen changes in our society which are nothing short of amazing. If you wanted to describe what happened, you could use one word “computer”. It is the most profound technological development since the steam engine started the industrial revolution 200 years ago. To-day, not only every desk in a typical office has a computer on it, but they are used by farmers, garage mechanics, dentists, doctors, pharmacists in addition to 100`s of other occupations. According to 2005 statistics, two-thirds of homes in the United States had computers. In the early 50`s computers were used in data processing by banks and insurance companies but they were huge, expensive and generally out of sight. The difference between the old and new computers is the microprocessor which was developed in 1969 and is essentially a cheap computer on a silicon chip.
The computer has had profound changes on a myriad of other areas in society. In 1950 a million overseas telephone calls originated in the United States. To-day the figure is 6.27 billion. On the streets, in trains and in office buildings people are in touch with one another, and while waiting in airports and bus stations, are using their laptops to do business. Cash was king. People were paid by cash, and paid their bills the same way. Credit cards and debit cards, made possible by the computer, are making cash obsolete.
In 1954 more than a third of Americans belonged to a union. To-day the figure is 14% but half of these workers are government employees. There are far fewer strikes. Women spent their working day at home, but now over 60% are out in the work force. Greatly improved household appliances make house work far less time-consuming. Female corporate officers are not unique as they were 50 years ago.
The internet is a part of the communication revolution. It is as important to the microprocessor as the railroad was to the steam engine. The internet allows people with common interests to find one another, including buyers and sellers, and acts as a broker. Firms that trade information such as stock brokers, travel agents or auction houses must change or go out of business. Newspapers are in financial trouble. Bloggers and internet journalists can respond quickly to breaking news and individuals, for next to nothing, can organize their own web site. Retailers are moving quickly to advertise their products on the web, and rentals and sales of industrial properties, apartments, and homes have decimated the classified advertising section of newspapers.
But we are only at the beginning of change caused by the near ability of computer- type machines to improve themselves by using artificial intelligence. The Acceleration Studies Foundation refers to this period as the “Singularity”. It will be unlike anything humanity has ever experienced. We would at first see changes that we can easily comprehend. How the world changes around you, using interconnected camera surveillance systems and the Global Positioning System. It will record the flow of traffic on the 401 or the changing migratory habits of geese. There will be a proliferation of sensors which will reveal what you bought, and where you bought it, and how much you paid. With an iphone to track your location, you can be told how to avoid a friend near you, or if the pollen level or smog level in a certain neighborhood will affect your health. In the future, as information ceases to be simply a tool and begins, literally, to weave its way into the fabric of our lives, the question of who controls that data flow, in terms of both code and hardware, assumes central importance. Efforts to make sense of the massive flow of information would be enhanced with the addition of a machine analyst. Environments would thrive with intelligent agent systems knowing what to filter and what to emphasize. It is likely that such a system would need to learn how to emulate your own thought processes. None of these systems would truly need to be a self-aware, self-modifying intelligent machine, but they in time, could reach that point. Even the closest process we have to computer crafted soft-ware still betrays the presence of a human maker. Yet, if the potential benefits of these worlds would be enhanced with intelligent artificially formulated information, so would the dangers. Avoiding dystopia will be a challenge worthy of the human mind.
